Tajikistan is the poorest country in the central Asia region (GDP per capita is $872) and is politically and economically fragile. It has made steady progress since the end of the civil war in 1998: the national poverty rate has improved from over 80% to 46.7% today (HDR 2013). These gains are, however, at risk: economic growth and poverty reduction have been driven by migrant workers in Russia, who contributed 47% of GDP in 2012. The Russian economy is, however, slowing and labour opportunities and remittances are unlikely to be sustained at current levels. The small private sector is not creating adequate revenues or job opportunities to offset the relative decline in remittances. Tajikistan is unlikely to achieve the 9% growth rate needed to keep pace with the burgeoning population. Health and education provision is deteriorating. Poverty is increasing.
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